Today, GBP/USD continues its decline, trading at 1.26912, pressured by strong U.S. job data and anticipation of UK economic reports.
Key Points
- Key UK economic data, including jobs, GDP, industrial production, and trade balance, are expected this week.
- The Bank of England is anticipated to maintain its rate at 5.25% on June 20th, amidst economic uncertainties related to the upcoming general election.
- Technical analysis indicates GBP/USD trading below the 200 EMA, with the RSI suggesting a potential retracement from current support levels.
GBP/USD Daily Price Analysis – 10/06/2024
On Friday, the GBP/USD pair opened at 1.27912 and closed at 1.27191, marking a decline of 0.56%. This movement was primarily influenced by the robust U.S. non-farm payroll report, which revealed a substantial addition of 272,000 jobs in May, significantly exceeding the forecasted 182,000. This data strengthened the U.S. dollar, leading to a rise in the Dollar Index by 0.31% to 105.248. Consequently, the British pound lost ground against the dollar, as the strong employment figures also raised the average hourly earnings by 0.4%, further bolstering the dollar’s appeal.
Today, the GBP/USD pair has continued its downward trajectory, opening at 1.27191 and currently trading at 1.26912, a further decline of 0.22%. The pound remains under pressure, trading below the key 1.2800 level it struggled with last week. This decline can be attributed to lingering market reactions to the strong U.S. job data and the anticipation of critical economic reports from the UK this week.
Key Economic Data and News to Be Released Today
Although no high-impact economic data will be released today, The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release reports on jobs, monthly GDP, industrial production, construction output, and trade balance later in the week. Expectations suggest that the UK economy may have stalled in April, with potential declines in industrial production. The jobless rate is anticipated to stay at 4.3%, and average regular pay growth is anticipated to stay at 5.7%.
Additionally, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to maintain its rate at 5.25% in its meeting on June 20th, the highest since 2008, despite persistent inflation concerns. Uncertainties surrounding the upcoming general election in early July add to the economic unpredictability.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis – 10/06/2024
Looking at GBP/USD price action for the day, it’s clear that the market is bearish. A closer look at the chart shows the price smoothly trending below the 200 EMA, while consistently breaking market structure to the downside.
However, the RSI is signaling a caution against the current bearish move. The indicator suggests that the pair is currently oversold and might have to retrace to the upside before continuing its downtrend. On the other hand, since the retracement is happening at a critical support level, we might have a full-blown reversal from here.
Given these opposing trade ideas, ideally, every trader is advised to carefully revisit their plans and wait for a clear trade entry that suits their plan before entering a trade.
GBP/USD Fibonacci Key Price Levels 10/06/2024
Short-term traders planning to invest in GBP/USD today should keep a close eye on the following key price levels for the day:
| Support | Resistance |
| 1.29119 | 1.27927 |
| 1.26869 | 1.28177 |
| 1.26465 | 1.28581 |
Risk Disclosure: The information provided in this article is not intended to give financial advice, recommend investments, guarantee profits, or shield you from losses. Our content is only for informational purposes and to help you understand the risks and complexity of these markets by providing objective analysis. Before trading, carefully consider your experience, financial goals, and risk tolerance. Trading involves significant potential for financial loss and isn't suitable for everyone.
