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US30

Trading The US30 Post-Election

By Shain Vernier6th Dec 2023 4:40 PM
Key Level44750.00000
Next Level44250.00000
Pips+500


Uncertainty is a big deal in the markets. It drives angst and paranoia, two emotions that prompt selling. Anytime uncertainty subsides, bidders become active. That’s what has happened this week — the US election is final, and the past 12 months of uncertainty are over. Now, buyers are dominating the US indices, especially the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).
A Landslide Victory
In politics, the term “landslide” is often used but rarely witnessed. It means an undeniable win, free of dispute. Tuesday, 5 November, brought a landslide Republican victory that delivered the Presidency and a Senatorial majority. The final results of Election 2024 are undeniable: Trump easily won the necessary 270 electoral votes and the Popular Vote. The Republicans gained four Senate seats, securing a majority. As of this writing, the Republicans hold a lead in the House of Representatives and expect to win the majority upon several races being called. Polymarket currently assigns a 98% chance of a Republican majority in the House of Representatives for the 2025-27 term.
Ultimately, this was a definitive election. Many analysts and political pundits expected the 2024 political season to be decided in a courtroom. The markets did as well. Safe haven assets posted big gains in the run-up to the election, led by gold, silver, and the Swiss franc. Stocks and crypto remained bullish, but traded largely sideways. Now, the shoe is on the other foot: stocks and crypto are up huge, while safe havens lag.
DJIA (US30): Technical Outlook
Wednesday, 6 November 2024, the US30 spiked by an astonishing 3.56%. Bidders entered the market enthusiastically following the uncontested landslide election. A few observations jump off the daily US30 chart. First, the enormity of the 6 November candle is striking. It marked the largest one-day gain since 2020. Second, the key number of 45,000 is within striking distance. This is a likely destination for the US30 and may be a great short-scalping opportunity in the near future.
For now, buying pullbacks is a solid way of approaching the US indices. US30 bids from the 43,150 area are tough to argue with. If a selloff does develop early next week, this zone should draw heavy buying. Check out our Key Levels for more information on this trade idea.
The Fed Speaks! A Cautionary Tale?
Thursday brought the latest installment from Jerome Powell and the United States Federal Reserve. To no one’s surprise, the Fed cut interest rates by ¼ point and continued to reduce their balance sheet. The real story was the tone in the room. Media members asked Powell repeatedly about the election’s result and if it would impact Fed policy. “No” was the word of the day, with Powell reiterating that Trump could not fire him and that he would not step down if asked. By far, the most important question faced forward guidance. In short, the Fed’s stance remains data-dependent. Powell alluded to the uncertainty of future legislation regarding tax cuts and tariffs, essentially saying that the Fed would adjust policy after such events occurred:
“We don’t know the timing and substance of what any policy changes will be. We therefore don’t know what the effects on the economy would be, specifically, whether and to what extent those policies would matter for the achievement of our goal variables, maximum employment and price stability.”
Powell went on to say:
“In principle, it’s possible that any administration’s policies could have economic effects over time that would matter for our pursuit of our mandate goals. So, we, along with countless other factors, forecast of those economic effects would be included in our models of the economy and would be taken into account.”
Here’s the bottom line: the Trump administration’s stated policies have the Fed rethinking their planned rate cuts for 2025. If you’re trading equities, hold on; 2025 is the year when tariffs, tax cuts, and interest rates will collide. Volatility is guaranteed as the post-COVID rally in stocks is set up for a challenge. Get out the popcorn and buckle up — fresh uncertainty just entered the room.

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US30
Key Level 44750.00000
Next Level 44250.00000
Pips +500
USDCAD
Key Level 1.37550
Next Level 1.37950
Pips +40
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GBPUSD
Key Level 1.30200
Next Level 1.31000
Pips +100
USDCHF
Key Level 0.87750
Next Level 0.87400
Pips +35
EURUSD
Key Level 1.05925
Next Level 1.07609
Pips +200
XAUUSD
Key Level 2719.50000
Next Level 2722.50000
Pips +300
GBPUSD
Key Level 1.30550
Next Level 1.30050
Pips +50
AUDUSD
Key Level 0.65673
Next Level 0.67000
Pips +140
XAGUSD
Key Level 32.50000
Next Level 33.00000
Pips +500
XAUUSD
Key Level 2765.00000
Next Level 2790.00000
Pips +350
EURUSD
Key Level 1.09250
Next Level 1.08890
Pips +36
USTEC
Key Level 20350.00000
Next Level 20500.00000
Pips +500
AUDUSD
Key Level 0.66050
Next Level 0.65700
Pips +35
WTI
Key Level 66.00000
Next Level 63.60000
Pips +300
USDJPY
Key Level 155.00000
Next Level 160.00000
Pips +700
WTI
Key Level 70.00000
Next Level 63.59000
Pips +700
NZDUSD
Key Level 0.59690
Next Level 0.59940
Pips +25
US2000
Key Level 2063.00000
Next Level 2463.00000
Pips +400
USDCAD
Key Level 1.39490
Next Level 1.39090
Pips +40
GBPUSD
Key Level 1.30000
Next Level 1.31000
Pips +200
XAUUSD
Key Level 2715.00000
Next Level 2725.00000
Pips +100
USDJPY
Key Level 150.00000
Next Level 146.00000
Pips +700
XAGUSD
Key Level 34.25000
Next Level 34.28000
Pips +30
USTEC
Key Level 20500.00000
Next Level 20700.00000
Pips +400
EURUSD
Key Level 1.07350
Next Level 1.07750
Pips +40
AUDUSD
Key Level 0.66750
Next Level 0.69500
Pips +260
XAUUSD
Key Level 2745.00000
Next Level 2725.00000
Pips +2000
WTI
Key Level 63.58000
Next Level 60.00000
Pips +100
XAUUSD
Key Level 2677.50000
Next Level 2687.50000
Pips +1000
USTEC
Key Level 20500.00000
Next Level 20800.00000
Pips +400
USTEC
Key Level 20500.00000
Next Level 20800.00000
Pips +400
USDCHF
Key Level 0.86270
Next Level 0.85890
Pips +38
XAUUSD
Key Level 2676.00000
Next Level 2685.00000
Pips +90
XAGUSD
Key Level 32.75000
Next Level 32.50000
Pips +250
USTEC
Key Level 20361.00000
Next Level 21000.00000
Pips +700
EURNZD
Key Level 1.78770
Next Level 1.79070
Pips +30
EURUSD
Key Level 1.10900
Next Level 1.09000
Pips +100
NZDUSD
Key Level 0.61690
Next Level 0.61440
Pips +25
XAUUSD
Key Level 2560.00000
Next Level 2572.50000
Pips +1250
EURNZD
Key Level 1.81890
Next Level 1.81490
Pips +40
USDJPY
Key Level 1.46350
Next Level 1.46950
Pips +60
XAGUSD
Key Level 31.25000
Next Level 31.75000
Pips +50
WTI
Key Level 72.75000
Next Level 73.25000
Pips +50
EURUSD
Key Level 1.10000
Next Level 1.05000
Pips +100
XAUUSD
Key Level 2605.50000
Next Level 2615.50000
Pips +1000
AUDUSD
Key Level 0.98270
Next Level 0.98570
Pips +30
US30
Key Level 41692.00000
Next Level 42646.00000
Pips +170
US500
Key Level 5627.70000
Next Level 5667.00000
Pips +393
GBPUSD
Key Level 1.32737
Next Level 1.31833
Pips +100
GBPUSD
Key Level 1.34750
Next Level 1.34410
Pips +34
Other
Key Level 2.75000
Next Level 2.79500
Pips +45
US500
Key Level 6000.00000
Next Level 5800.00000
Pips +400
EURUSD
Key Level 1.11350
Next Level 1.11790
Pips +44
AUDUSD
Key Level 0.68670
Next Level 0.69400
Pips +50
WTI
Key Level 72.74000
Next Level 71.84000
Pips +90
USTEC
Key Level 20500.00000
Next Level 20000.00000
Pips +600
XAUUSD
Key Level 2605.00000
Next Level 2617.50000
Pips +1250
GBPUSD
Key Level 1.33400
Next Level 1.32000
Pips +140
EURUSD
Key Level 1.11150
Next Level 1.11400
Pips +25
USDJPY
Key Level 144.36200
Next Level 141.00000
Pips +430
GBPUSD
Key Level 1.32090
Next Level 1.32690
Pips +60
US30
Key Level 42000.00000
Next Level 41224.00000
Pips +200
Other
Key Level 2.42500
Next Level 2.49500
Pips +70
EURUSD
Key Level 1.12490
Next Level 1.11890
Pips +60
GBPUSD
Key Level 1.31888
Next Level 1.33000
Pips +120
USDCHF
Key Level 0.84700
Next Level 0.84300
Pips +40
XAUUSD
Key Level 2530.00000
Next Level 2620.00000
Pips +120
AUDCAD
Key Level 0.92440
Next Level 0.91840
Pips +60
EURUSD
Key Level 1.09620
Next Level 1.10090
Pips +47
GBPUSD
Key Level 1.30000
Next Level 1.29000
Pips +150
US30
Key Level 39750.00000
Next Level 39950.00000
Pips +200
US500
Key Level 5450.00000
Next Level 5550.00000
Pips +100
USDCAD
Key Level 1.36250
Next Level 1.35750
Pips +50
USDJPY
Key Level 145.50000
Next Level 140.00000
Pips +400
GBPUSD
Key Level 1.30304
Next Level 1.32656
Pips +230
XAUUSD
Key Level 2525.00000
Next Level 2560.00000
Pips +50
Other
Key Level 650.00000
Next Level 800.00000
Pips +150
USTEC
Key Level 18750.00000
Next Level 20000.00000
Pips +1250
USDCAD
Key Level 1.36000
Next Level 1.36873
Pips +150
USDJPY
Key Level 149.38400
Next Level 149.00000
Pips +350
AUDCHF
Key Level 0.57500
Next Level 0.56500
Pips +100
WTI
Key Level 76.00000
Next Level 80.00000
Pips +40
AUDCAD
Key Level 1.08890
Next Level 1.08290
Pips +60
EURUSD
Key Level 1.10510
Next Level 1.11200
Pips +69
GBPUSD
Key Level 1.31400
Next Level 1.30000
Pips +300
USDJPY
Key Level 143.61000
Next Level 144.30000
Pips +69
EURUSD
Key Level 1.11000
Next Level 1.12746
Pips +110
US500
Key Level 5649.00000
Next Level 5638.00000
Pips +110
USDCAD
Key Level 1.34750
Next Level 1.35250
Pips +50
WTI
Key Level 75.00000
Next Level 73.00000
Pips +100
XAUUSD
Key Level 2455.00000
Next Level 2457.50000
Pips +250
Other
Key Level 40.00000
Next Level 45.00000
Pips +150
USDCHF
Key Level 0.84090
Next Level 0.84790
Pips +70
USDJPY
Key Level 140.00000
Next Level 145.00000
Pips +600
USDJPY
Key Level 146.80000
Next Level 141.79000
Pips +200
EURGBP
Key Level 0.84790
Next Level 0.84940
Pips +25
EURUSD
Key Level 1.10000
Next Level 1.09091
Pips +130
XAGUSD
Key Level 28.50000
Next Level 28.75000
Pips +250
GBPUSD
Key Level 1.28940
Next Level 1.28640
Pips +30
US500
Key Level 5300.00000
Next Level 5000.00000
Pips +460
XAUUSD
Key Level 2442.50000
Next Level 2448.50000
Pips +600
USDCAD
Key Level 1.36800
Next Level 1.36258
Pips +40
AUDCAD
Key Level 0.91050
Next Level 0.90760
Pips +29
EURUSD
Key Level 1.09091
Next Level 1.10000
Pips +80
USDCHF
Key Level 0.86300
Next Level 0.86050
Pips +25
WTI
Key Level 78.15000
Next Level 75.00000
Pips +300
Other
Key Level 2.32500
Next Level 2.17500
Pips +150
USDJPY
Key Level 140.00000
Next Level 149.00000
Pips +700
XAGUSD
Key Level 28.15000
Next Level 28.00500
Pips +145
US500
Key Level 5200.00000
Next Level 5000.00000
Pips +200
  • ...
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Pair: Key Level: Next Level: Pips: