This week has been a notable one for US stock indices, with the CPI data on Wednesday pushing all indices lower. The DJI has shed some of its gains for the second consecutive week, and currently, the bearish momentum seems to be increasing.
Key Points
- After the CPI infused some bearish pressure on the index on Wednesday, DJI recovered slightly after the PPI data on Thursday. Today, the bearish sentiment continues with US30 futures fell by 0.25%.
- Investors will hope to gain more guidance from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index report today.
- Key price levels are the 38,875 resistance and 38,478 support.
Dow Jones Daily Price Analysis – 12/04/2024
The resultant direction of Dow Futures during Thursday’s trading session was a slight 0.06 increase. Prior to that, on Wednesday, the index saw a sharp 1.12% decline following the release of the stronger-than-expected CPI data release. The index futures currently trades at 38,788, down 0.25%.
The CPI report on Wednesday was sure to douse any hopes of the Fed cutting interest rates by June this year. The PPI, on the other hand, which was released yesterday, provided some form of soft landing for the stocks as wholesale prices dropped. Looking aheadm, investors will be eyeing the Consumer Sentiment Index data later in the day to further influence their trading decisions going into next week.
On the technical side, the index finally dipped into the bearish side of the 50 EMA after months of staying firmly above the indicator line. The RSI line has also fallen to the lower half of its range, suggesting a bearish outlook for the index.
Dow Jones Intraday Technical Analysis – 12/04/2024
The DJI weak start to Q2 has persisted, as the price briefly fell to the lowest price level in a month yesterday. And from its highest point on the 1st of April, the price has now dropped by 4.04%.
DJI now trades within two key technical levels: 38,875 resistance and 38,478 support. Chances are that when the stock market opens today, we’ll see a break out of these levels. If the price breaks to the upside, we have the 39,306 and 39,704 resistance levels to be on the lookout for.
If the price continues to dip, though, its first main test would be to fall below the 38,478 support and then the 2-month low of 38,095.
Key Economic Data and News to Be Released Today
After a week of notable economic data releases, investors will expect to see a rather calm Friday. The Consumer Sentiment Index and a long list of CFTC net positions data will be released. And before the end of the trading day, FOMC member Daly will speak.
DJI Key Pivot Point Levels 12/04/2024
Based on the 1hr chart, the key Pivot Point levels for DJI are these:
| S2 | S1 | Pivot Point | R1 | R2 |
| 37,986 | 38,605 | 39,481 | 40,100 | 40,976 |
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