Caution: Trading involves the possibility of financial loss. Only trade with money that you are prepared to lose, you must recognise that for factors outside your control you may lose all of the money in your trading account. Many forex brokers also hold you liable for losses that exceed your trading capital. So you may stand to lose more money than is in your account. HowToTrade.com does not guarantee the profitability of trades executed on its systems. We have no knowledge on the level of money you are trading with or the level of risk you are taking with each trade. You must make your own financial decisions, we take no responsibility for money made or lost as a result of using our servers or advice on forex related products on this website.
Expand Offer

Save $228 on our Trade Together program, paid for by our partner.

Learn More

Save $228 on our Trade Together program, paid for by our partner.

Learn More

S&P 500 Daily Price Analysis – Indicators and Market Sentiment Point to a Pullback

  • 3 mins read ●
  • Published:
sp500 market analysis 2

The S&P 500 index futures trade flat this morning, following three consecutive days of indecision candles. With that, technical indicators and market sentiment point to a potential pullback. Later today, investors and economists will look closely at the CPI data for guidance on the Fed’s rate cut decision.

Key Points

  • The S&P 500 ended yesterday with a meager 0.13% gain, creating three consecutive days of doji candles.
  • The US CPI data today might shed some insights into the inflationary pressure in the US and the Fed’s June rate cut decision.
  • The general trend remains bullish, with the US500 trading slightly below its all-time high. However, technical indicators and market sentiment might indicate that a possible pullback could be near.

S&P 500 Daily Price Analysis – 10/04/2024

After so much tussle, the S&P 500 closed at just a slight increase of 0.13% on Tuesday. In the morning session, the US 500 futures edge higher, adding 0.16%.

Today’s CPI data will be in the spotlight for investors and analysts, who’ll be looking to pounce on it to get some insight into the Fed’s June rate cut decision. Already, the CME FedWatch Tool predicts that the chances of a June rate cut are only 46%.

“A delay is within the range of possible outcomes,” said Marta Norton, chief investment officer at Morningstar Wealth, “particularly if we see March inflation data surprise to the upside.” Her view corresponds to the view of Atalanta Fed President Raphael W. Bostic in an interview

“I do think the risks are balanced,” he said, “given that the US economy has been so robust and so strong and so resilient. I can’t take off the possibility that the rate cuts may even have to move further out.”

With that, along with technical indicators and the index hovering at a tight range over the past three days, there’s a possibility of a pullback. The index, which gained 9.23% since the beginning of the year and 26% YoY, seems to have lost momentum lately.

From a long-term technical perspective, the 50-day EMA and RSI both still point higher; however, a series of Doji candles, as appears in the US500 daily chart, may indicate a price reversal.

S&P 500 daily chart_2024-04-10
S&P500 Daily Chart – 10/04/2024

S&P500 Intraday Technical Analysis – 10/04/2024

The 5272.5 price level remains crucial ahead of the market opening. Since the price broke below it last Thursday, the support-turned-resistance has solidified into a hard ceiling. If it continues to remain strong, we may see a reversal back to 5245.75 or 5235 support. Further down, we have 5209.5 support.

Should the 5275.5 ceiling break, though, the 5306.75 resistance level becomes the next target.

S&P 500 hourly chart_2024-04-10
S&P500 1H Chart – 10/04/2024

Key Economic Data and News to Be Released Today

Investors will be pouncing on the CPI for the March news release today in search of June rate cut guidance. If the Inflation report suggests that the US economy remains strong under the current circumstances, the chances of a June rate cut may further dip. 

Later today, we’ll also get the FOMC meeting minutes and Crude Oil Inventories.

Visit our Economic Calendar

S&P500 Fibonacci Key Price Levels 10/04/2024

Based on the hourly chart, here are the key S&P 500 Fibonacci support and resistance levels to watch as of 10/04/2024. 

SupportResistance
$5250.75$5270.25
$5231.00$5298.00
$5206.75
$5167.75

Risk Disclosure: The information provided in this article is not intended to give financial advice, recommend investments, guarantee profits, or shield you from losses. Our content is only for informational purposes and to help you understand the risks and complexity of these markets by providing objective analysis. Before trading, carefully consider your experience, financial goals, and risk tolerance. Trading involves significant potential for financial loss and isn't suitable for everyone.

Trade Like a Predator Hunt for Opportunities

Sign up now for FREE access to our exclusive trading strategy videos. Want more? Explore our Trade Together program for live streams, expert coaching and much more.

Here’s what you’ll get:

Identifying high probability scalping setups
When to scalp and when to stay out
Precise entries and exits
Position sizing and risk management
HTT Piranha Strategy Course thumbnail
By clicking the 'Learn Free Now' button you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy
HTT Connor, arms crossed

In partnership with our recommended partner SwitchMarkets partnering broker logo

Wait!

1Register with Switch Markets.
2Verify your identity.
3Unlock Trade Together program for free!
Learn More

"Join our Trade Together program and interact with us in real-time as we trade the markets together."

HowToTrade Coaches