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EUR/USD Daily Price Analysis – Positive European Sentiment Boosts EUR/USD Despite Bearish Trend

  • 3 mins read ●
  • Published:
eur usd 4

Today, the EUR/USD pair opened at 1.08010 and rose to 1.08125, representing a 0.11% increase driven by positive sentiment indices from the European Commission.

Key Points

  • Spain’s May inflation rose to 3.8%, adding to Eurozone price pressures.
  • Positive European sentiment indices supported EUR/USD’s slight recovery today.
  • Expected US Q1 GDP slowdown to 1.2% and higher unemployment claims support the euro.

EUR/USD Daily Price Analysis – 30/05/2024

Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair closed at 1.08010, down from an opening of 1.08567, marking a decline of 0.51%. The euro’s depreciation against the dollar was influenced by steady unemployment rates in the Eurozone and rising inflation indicators. Despite these economic signals, market sentiment leaned towards a cautious stance on the euro. 

Eurostat reported that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.4% in April, against expectations of a rise to 6.5%. Additionally, several sentiment indices showed modest improvements, which offered some support but did not prevent the overall decline of the euro​.

Today, the EUR/USD pair has slightly recovered, opening at 1.08010 and rising to 1.08125, representing a 0.11% increase. Early European trading sessions showed the euro holding gains against the dollar. This uptick was primarily driven by steady unemployment rates and positive sentiment indices from the European Commission, which indicated a slightly more optimistic economic outlook. The sentiment indices, which include economic, industrial, and services sentiment, all showed marginal improvements in May.

The euro’s performance today is also underpinned by inflation data from Spain, where the national inflation rate rose to 3.8% in May, surpassing expectations. This uptick in inflation contributes to the broader narrative of rising price pressures within the Eurozone, which could influence the European Central Bank’s future policy decisions. 

In the US, the anticipated slowdown in preliminary GDP growth for Q1 to 1.2% and an expected increase in unemployment claims to 218K have also contributed to the current dynamics, supporting the euro against the dollar​.

Key Economic Data and News to Be Released Today

Key releases today include the US preliminary GDP figures and unemployment claims. The GDP growth rate is expected to decelerate, which might further influence the dollar’s performance. Additionally, the market will be looking at the US Core PCE Price Index, a critical inflation measure. 

Any deviations from the expected values could significantly impact the EUR/USD pair. Moreover, the Goods Trade Balance and pending home sales figures will provide further insights into the health of the US economy.

Visit our Economic Calendar

EUR/USD Technical Analysis – 30/05/2024

The technical analysis of the EUR/USD chart indicates that the pair is currently in a bearish trend. Although there was a significant retracement earlier today, it appears that the bullish momentum is now giving way to bearish pressure, as the RSI indicates that the price is in the overbought zone.

eurusd m15 chart
EUR/USD 15-Minute Chart

Given that the EUR/USD is trending below the 200 Exponential Moving Average, it is advisable to focus on taking short positions in line with the current trend. However, this bearish outlook may be invalidated if the price closes above the 200 EMA and the R1 resistance level.

EUR/USD Fibonacci Key Price Levels 30/05/2024

Short-term traders planning to invest in EUR/USD today should keep a close eye on the following key price levels for the day:

SupportResistance
1.079741.08438
1.078301.08582
1.075981.08814

Risk Disclosure: The information provided in this article is not intended to give financial advice, recommend investments, guarantee profits, or shield you from losses. Our content is only for informational purposes and to help you understand the risks and complexity of these markets by providing objective analysis. Before trading, carefully consider your experience, financial goals, and risk tolerance. Trading involves significant potential for financial loss and isn't suitable for everyone.

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