Fundamental and technical factors add to the EUR/USD downside pressure. Retail Sales and PPI data in focus.
Key Points
- The EUR/USD gained 0.16%yesterday and adds 0.18% on Thursday, but the general outlook remains bearish.
- Notable indicators point to a bearish outlook for the pair in the long term.
- Key price levels to watch are $1.07338, $1.07459, and $1.07169.
EUR/USD Daily Price Analysis – 15/02/2024
Since the end of December 2023, the EUR/USD has been in a downtrend, and the price fell even lower after the release of the CPI data on Tuesday. The high inflation rate reduced the Fed rate cut probability in March from 21% to 10.5%, according to the FedWatch Tool. Yesterday, the 14th of Feb, the pair put up some fight to rise by 0.16%. But that wasn’t enough to overturn the CPI day’s bearish candle that saw the price fall by 0.58%.
So far today, the price has risen by a further 0.08% to $1.07348. Despite that, notable indicators, including the 50-day EMA and the RSI, still indicate a bearish fortune for the pair. Considering these factors, the overall outlook for the EUR/USD remains bearish.
Technically, the EUR/USD is making a retracement to the upside on the hourly timeframe after the huge CPI-induced drop. Plotting the Fibonacci retracement tool on the chart, you’ll observe that the price has only just broken past the 0.618 level, which coincides with the $1.07338 price level. This break doesn’t yet look convincing, though, as we’ve not seen a strong bullish candle to push the price further up the retracement.
If the price continues to retrace upward, the next Fibonacci levels test are at 0.5 ($1.07459), 0.382 ($1.07578), and 0.236 ($1.07726) to contend with as resistance levels.
On the flip side, if the 0.618 level is able to hold the price, we might see a continuation of the major downtrend. That would put the support level at $1.07169 in jeopardy as the price looks to clear out the major swing low of $1.06950.
Even though the 50-EMA and the RSI suggest that the EUR/USD outlook remains bullish in the short term, the overall trend still remains heavily bearish.
Key Economic Data and News to Be Released Today
US Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, and Philadelphia/New York Fed Manufacturing Indices (8:30 AM GMT-5) are top news events to watch today. Upbeat retail sales, low unemployment claims, or expanding manufacturing activity could benefit the USD and push the EUR/USD lower. On the flip side, sluggish sales, high jobless claims, or contracting manufacturing might trigger a sharp rebound in the pair to the bullish side. Mixed data will likely have a limited impact until market sentiment settles.
EUR/USD Key Fibonacci Price Levels 15/2/2024
Based on the 1hr chart, the key standard pivot point levels for the EUR/USD are these:
| Support | Resistance |
| $1.07169 | $1.07459 |
| $1.06950 | $1.07578 |
| $1.07726 |
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