The USD/JPY price slowly edges closer to the 152 psychological level after a strong Non-Farm Payroll report from the United States last Friday, which caused investors to lower their expectations for June rate cut.
Key Points
- A strong NFP report on Friday has lowered June rate cur expectations.
- The pair edges closer to the 152 price mark, currently trading at 151.866.
- The key levels for the pair are the 151.95 resistance and 151.05 support level.
USD/JPY Daily Price Analysis – 08/04/2024
USDJPY rose by 0.19% on Friday following a strong NFP news release. This purposeful move has continued today, as the price almost covered the same distance of an increase of 0.16%, edging ever so close to 152. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 151.866.
On Friday, the nonfarm payroll data released showed signs of greater strength in the US economy. The NFP report came out quite well at 303,000 in March, better than a forecasted 212,000 and better than a previous 270,000.
As a result of this and other key releases over the past few weeks, investors and economists have quickly scaled back their expectations for a June rate cut. The CME FedWatch tool echoes this with a 51.2% probability for a rate cut in June, lower than last week.
Meanwhile, authorities from its counterpart country, Japan, keep blowing hot about intervening with necessary measures should their currency fall below the 152 psychological level. Investors would rather sit things out as the price gradually approaches this level and see how the BoJ handles this. Fundamentally, the Japanese February overall wage income of employees showed a dip from 2.0% to 1.8%, undermining the Japanese Yen.
From a technical perspective, the pair remains on the bullish side of the 50EMA and the RSI.
USD/JPY Intraday Technical Analysis – 08/04/2024
For the second straight week, the USDJPY trades in a tight range, and the key support and resistance levels in this range are 151.95 resistance and 151.05 support. This support level was temporarily breached last Thursday, with the price falling to a two-week low of 150.81 before quickly bouncing back into the range.
For short-term intraday traders who want to trade within this range, the key levels to look out for are the range high, 151.48 support, and the range low. Leaving the 1-hour timeframe and taking a closer look at the 15-minute timeframe, two other support levels, 151.745 and 151.267, reveal themselves.
Key Economic Data and News to Be Released Today
Today is free of any key economic data that investors tend to look at for interest rate guidance. However, looking at the weekly calendar, the BoJ governor mounts the podium on Wednesday, and Core CPI data from the U.S. will be released on that day. As a result, this day could be key for both pairs as investors and economists will be hunting for any signs of future rate directions.
USD/JPY Key Fibonacci Price Levels 08/04/2024
Based on the 1hr chart, the key Fibonacci price levels for USDJPY are these:
| Support | Resistance |
| $150.799 | $151.974 |
| $149.876 | |
| $149.228 |
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