The USD/JPY holds steady during the morning session as investors await the Japanese CPI report later today.
Key Points
- The JPY may remain weak against its USD counterpart if the CPI data today is as economists expect it to be.
- The pair is struggling to break the high of 150.88 but looks bullish on the hourly chart.
- The $150.76 price is the key level to break if the pair is to mount any continuous bullish pressure.
USD/JPY Daily Price Analysis – 26/02/2024
There were no victors or vanquished between the bulls and the bears last Friday, as the USD/JPY closed on an insignificant 0.01% loss. Today, the pair is trading slightly higher in the London session with a 0.06% gain, currently trading at $150.625.
On the JPY front, attention is on the Japanese Consumer Price Index report, which is set to be released today. Economists expect this report to come at 1.9%, the lowest it has been in a while. If economists are correct, the BoJ may be less likely to cut its loose monetary policies.
And on the Western continent, the Greenback has reasons to remain bullish. Thanks to the FOMC meeting minutes released last week, analysts believe the Fed isn’t in a hurry to cut interest rates. Holding the interest rates high for longer benefits the US Treasury bond yields and will likely keep the USD up.
Overall, from a technical perspective, the outlook also remains bullish for the USDJPY, as the RSI and Stochastic Oscillators are firmly in the bullish zone. Yet, the Stochastic is issuing a warning that the pair is in the overbought zone, and a reversal might be impending.
USD/JPY Intraday Technical Analysis – 26/02/2024
Despite the pair not having broken the high of 150.88 that was set on the 13th of February, the outlook is bullish on the short-term intraday chart.
On the bullish side, there are there are two hurdles to cross. The first is the resistance level at $150.76. The second is the 13th of February’s swing high at $150.88. If the price can push beyond the first, we will likely see the break of the second, which may usher in a new wave of heavy bullishness to the pair.
On the downside, so many support levels await the price. But the most crucial will be the most recent untapped minor swing low at $150.018, hanging between 0.618 and 0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels. A break below that level may expose other levels below, including $149.91, $149.67, and $149.391.
Key Economic Data and News to be Released Today
Today at 10:00 GMT-5, the United States will release the number of new home sales in January. Later in the day, at 18:30 GMT-5, the Japanese CPI is set to be released. Economists forecast the inflation rate will drop to 1.9%. Anything lower could be considered a negative for the JPY, driving the USD/JPY pair even higher. And if the figure is higher than the forecast, this could be positive for the JPY, thereby dampening the rise in the pair.
USD/JPY Key Fibonacci Price Levels 26/02/2024
Based on the 1hr chart, the key Fibonacci price levels for USD/JPY are:
| Support | Resistance |
| $150.468 | $150.888 |
| $150.139 | |
| $149.907 | |
| $149.676 | |
| $148.390 |
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