The GBP posted strong gains against the USD for the second consecutive day yesterday as the ISM non-manufacturing was worse than economists anticipated. Investors will now turn their focus to the Initial Jobless Claims report today and the NFP data tomorrow.
Key Points
- Weak ISM Data from yesterday weighed heavily on the Dollar, causing the GBP/USD to rise.
- Dovish tones from Fed Officials may also serve as a headwind to the Dollar going forward.
- Investors will have their eyes on the Initial Jobless Claims from the US today,
GBP/USD Daily Price Analysis – 04/04/2024
The Pound recorded strong gains against the Greenback for the second day in a row yesterday after it climbed by 0.59% on Wednesday. So far in the Asian Session today, the price has only risen by 0.06%, with a bullish sentiment following Jerome Powell’s speech yesterday.
This significant climb had more to do with the Greenback than it did with the Pound, though. Yesterday’s ISM non-manufacturing data came out worse than expected. The Dollar Index, which tracks the strength of the dollar against 6 other currencies, fell by -0.29 % in response to the ISM report. Also, Fed Chair Powell, during his speech, asserted their readiness to initiate rate cuts if need be. This dovish tone further piled up the headwind for the USD.
Across the Atlantic, there are also talks of rate cuts, especially since global inflationary pressures started dipping. Andrew Bailey, BoE governor, remarked some weeks ago that as long as there are signs of inflationary pressures dropping even more, rate cuts are imminent.
Despite yesterday’s volatile movement, the pair remains in a range on the technical front, according to the 50 EMA indicator. The EMA line remains rather flat as the price approaches it. For confirmation, the RSI hangs just underneath the midpoint.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis – 04/04/2024
From the technical analysis perspective, the pair looks to hang right in the middle of two key levels: the 1.26389 support level and the 1.26683 resistance level. These two levels may prove to be crucial for this trading day. If the price breaks out of the resistance, we may see a further rise to the 1.27 psychological level and, beyond this, 1.272.
However, if the price falls below the support, we may see the 1.25753 support getting tested. And further down, we have the 1.254 price level, the lowest point this month so far.
Key Economic Data and News to Be Released Today
Not much is happening today on the economic data front apart from the Initial Jobless Claims from the United States. Tomorrow, the heavily anticipated non-farm payroll data will be released. Investors will be looking at these events to gain insights into interest rate matters.
GBP/USD Key Fibonacci Price Levels – 04/04/2024
Based on the 1hr chart, the key Fibonacci Price levels for the GBPUSD are these:
| Support | Resistance |
| 1.26070 | 1.26619 |
| 1.25184 | 1.27062 |
| 1.27505 | |
| 1.28136 |
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