Caution: Trading involves the possibility of financial loss. Only trade with money that you are prepared to lose, you must recognise that for factors outside your control you may lose all of the money in your trading account. Many forex brokers also hold you liable for losses that exceed your trading capital. So you may stand to lose more money than is in your account. does not guarantee the profitability of trades executed on its systems. We have no knowledge on the level of money you are trading with or the level of risk you are taking with each trade. You must make your own financial decisions, we take no responsibility for money made or lost as a result of using our servers or advice on forex related products on this website.
Expand Offer

Save $228 on our Trade Together program, paid for by our partner.

Learn More

Save $228 on our Trade Together program, paid for by our partner.

Learn More

GBPUSD Outlook: Sterling Searches for Reasons to Rally

  • 2 mins read ●
  • Published:
gbp usd market analysis, featured image

The bullish outlook for the British Pound is set to be tested this week with Thursday’s Halifax Housing Index data and hawkish commentary from BoE MPC uber dove Dr. Swati Dhingra.

Key Points

  • NFP volatility pushes the pound to 8-week lows.
  • BoE external member Dhingra maintained a ‘higher for longer’ narrative, stunting a recovery rally.
  • Bigger picture momentum is pointing to further sterling weakness over the next couple of weeks.
  • Sustained break lower could see Sterling printing 1.24’s before the end of the month.

GBPUSD Economic Outlook

GBPUSD struggled to recover yesterday after Friday’s stronger-than-expected US jobs data left cable under pressure in early week trading, falling -2.00% from last week’s high of 1.2772. This drops the pound to the bottom end of a range-bound market which has lasted for over 8 weeks.

External MPC member Dhingra said the Bank Of England should not take risks with the UK economy, and monetary policy will remain restrictive. Acknowledging the lack of decline in service sector inflation,  hawkish commentary from the MPC’s most dovish member hampered the rally in sterling throughout the London session, which failed to close the day above the key resistance level of 1.2603.

UK Housing Data In Focus

Investors will next focus on Wednesday’s Halifax House Price Index to provide some much-needed volatility for a currency with a ‘low key’ start to the year. The consensus is forecasting a downtick for the UK housing market, 0.8% from the January reading of 1.1%. A softening in the data could give the market the excuse to anticipate earlier than suggested rate cuts and push GBPUSD back into the 1.2600 – 1.2735 range. Without a higher print in the housing data, it’s difficult to see how the pound will rally from here, at least in the short term.

RSI Topping Out Already on the Recovery Rally

Momentum from the RSI on the daily timeframe has taken a marked step lower. On the smaller 15-minute timeframe, we touched the overbought level of 70 twice in today’s session. Any rally from here is likely to be met with resistance under 1.2668, which temporarily paused Friday’s bear move lower. Failure here could push the pound lower to the mid-November support range of 1.2500 – 1.2379. The top end has already been tested once meaning sterling could be trading around 1.24 by the end of the month.

Risk Disclosure: The information provided in this article is not intended to give financial advice, recommend investments, guarantee profits, or shield you from losses. Our content is only for informational purposes and to help you understand the risks and complexity of these markets by providing objective analysis. Before trading, carefully consider your experience, financial goals, and risk tolerance. Trading involves significant potential for financial loss and isn't suitable for everyone.

Trade Like a Predator Hunt for Opportunities

Sign up now for FREE access to our exclusive trading strategy videos. Want more? Explore our Trade Together program for live streams, expert coaching and much more.

Here’s what you’ll get:

Identifying high probability scalping setups
When to scalp and when to stay out
Precise entries and exits
Position sizing and risk management
HTT Piranha Strategy Course thumbnail
By clicking the 'Learn Free Now' button you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy
HTT Connor, arms crossed

In partnership with our recommended partner SwitchMarkets partnering broker logo


1Register with Switch Markets.
2Verify your identity.
3Unlock Trade Together program for free!
Learn More

"Join our Trade Together program and interact with us in real-time as we trade the markets together."

HowToTrade Coaches