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Natural Gas Daily Price Analysis – Shifts in Production and Weather Impact Trends

  • 3 mins read ●
  • Published:
natural gas market analysis 3

Traders are expected to keep their ears to the ground regarding production cuts, weather forecasts, and broader economic data that seem to strongly affect NG’s recent price movements.

Key Points

  • Recent fluctuations in Natural Gas prices highlight the impact of production adjustments and weather forecasts on market dynamics.
  • Production cuts by major producers like EQT Corp respond to low-price environments, temporarily boosting prices.
  • The outlook for warmer winter temperatures and its effect on heating demand could moderate price gains.

Natural Gas Daily Price Analysis – 06/03/2024

Natural Gas experienced a slight decrease in its closing price to 1.935 from an open of 1.950, marking a -1.12% change today. This follows a more positive movement the previous day, with a significant increase of +2.14% from an opening price of 1.928 to a close of 1.957. This recent fluctuation in Natural Gas prices could be attributed to various factors, including market reactions to production cuts, weather forecasts, and broader economic data.

On Tuesday, before the current trading day, Natural Gas prices showed some strength, gaining on news of production cuts by EQT Corp, the largest U.S. natural gas producer, which announced it would reduce net production through March due to low prices. However, these gains were tempered by forecasts for warmer winter temperatures in the central and eastern U.S., which could reduce heating demand and elevate supplies. The weather’s impact on natural gas demand is critical, as a mild winter has significantly curbed heating consumption, leading to inventories remaining well above average levels​​.

Looking at the broader market, the Henry Hub spot price, a benchmark for natural gas prices, rose slightly from $1.60 to $1.63 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in the week ending February 28, 2024. Despite these movements, forecasts and actual temperature changes have influenced natural gas prices in various regions, affecting consumption patterns and, subsequently, pricing. 

For instance, in the Northeast U.S., prices saw an uptick with forecasts of colder temperatures. However, a significant decrease in consumption was observed overall due to lower demand for space heating. Conversely, prices on the West Coast declined, partly due to high natural gas storage inventories contributing to lower prices for this time of year​​.

Key Economic Data and News to Be Released Today

There are many key economic data to focus on today: crude oil inventories, gasoline production, and the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change Report. The interaction between crude oil and natural gas markets is usually complex. 

An increase in crude oil inventories, indicating potentially lower crude oil prices, could lead to increased profitability for natural gas, especially if oil-to-gas switching becomes economically viable for power generation. 

Additionally, natural gas traders will be closely watching the EIA storage report, which is scheduled for tomorrow. 

Visit our Economic Calendar

Natural Gas Technical Analysis – 06/03/2024

We have an interesting price movement today. The price seems to have only headed down earlier today to find support at the intraday 200 EMA before continuing its bullish movement.

natural gas 15min chart
Natural Gas 15Min Chart – 07/02/2024

A close look at the price slant relative to the 200 EMA shows that the price is still bullish. The RSI also hinted that NG price came to the 50 point to find equilibrium, suggesting that there’s still more room for a bullish run before the price enters the overbought territory.

Natural Gas Fibonacci Key Price Levels 06/03/2024

Short-term traders planning to invest in NG today should keep a close eye on the following key price levels for the day:


Risk Disclosure: The information provided in this article is not intended to give financial advice, recommend investments, guarantee profits, or shield you from losses. Our content is only for informational purposes and to help you understand the risks and complexity of these markets by providing objective analysis. Before trading, carefully consider your experience, financial goals, and risk tolerance. Trading involves significant potential for financial loss and isn't suitable for everyone.

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