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EUR/USD Daily Price Analysis – EUR/USD Shows Modest Recovery While Bearish Trend Persists Due to Election Worries

  • 3 mins read ●
  • Published:
eur usd 4

The EUR/USD pair modestly recovered today, climbing from 1.07401 to 1.07497, marking a 0.09% gain after hitting a nearly six-week low of 1.07195 on Tuesday.

Key Points

  • Despite cautious optimism, the trend remains bearish due to potential impacts from European elections and geopolitical tensions.
  • Macroeconomic data influence the euro, with the ECB hinting at rate cuts and the Fed cautious on rates.
  • US Core CPI and CPI data today could significantly impact market sentiment and dollar strength, affecting Fed policy.

EUR/USD Daily Price Analysis – 12/06/2024

The EUR/USD pair staged a modest recovery today, climbing from its yesterday’s close of 1.07401 to its current price of 1.07497. This represents a small gain of 0.09%, after it had hit a nearly six-week low at 1.07195 on Tuesday.

The recent weakness in the Euro can be attributed to the political uncertainty surrounding the upcoming French snap election. The rise of far-right parties, particularly Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, is dampening investor sentiment towards the Eurozone.

Early trading movements suggest a cautious optimism, possibly influenced by a slight rebound in market sentiment. However, the overall trend remains bearish as traders are still reacting to the potential economic impacts of the upcoming European elections and the ongoing geopolitical tensions.

On the economic front, the euro’s recent performance has also been influenced by macroeconomic data from both sides of the Atlantic. The ECB’s recent decision to hold rates steady, with signals pointing towards potential rate cuts in the near future, reflects the ongoing challenges in the Eurozone economy. Meanwhile, in the US, despite inflation showing signs of easing, the Federal Reserve has maintained a cautious stance, delaying any immediate rate cuts.

Key Economic Data and News to Be Released Today

In the US, the release of Core CPI and CPI data will be crucial. These figures are forecasted to remain steady, with Core CPI at 0.3% and CPI at 0.1% monthly. 

Any surprises here could significantly affect market sentiment and the dollar’s strength, given their implications for future Fed policy. The Fed’s economic projections and the subsequent press conference will be closely monitored for hints of any shifts in monetary policy.

Visit our Economic Calendar

EUR/USD Technical Analysis – 12/06/2024

On the technical front, the EUR/USD pair is still bearish despite its upward momentum earlier today. The pair is currently trading below the 200 EMA. Additionally, the RSI seems to suggest the bullish retracement is almost over as it is already indicating the pair is in an overbought level.

eurusd m15 chart
EUR/USD 15-minute Chart

However, the possibility of a bullish reversal is not farfetched. Should the pair close significantly above the 200 EMA today, we might have to change the bias and prepare to go long. So, the direction of the pair today is hugely dependent on the result of CPI data.

EUR/USD Fibonacci Key Price Levels 12/06/2024

Short-term traders planning to invest in EUR/USD today should keep a close eye on the following key price levels for the day:

SupportResistance
1.072401.07652
1.071121.07780
1.069061.07986

Risk Disclosure: The information provided in this article is not intended to give financial advice, recommend investments, guarantee profits, or shield you from losses. Our content is only for informational purposes and to help you understand the risks and complexity of these markets by providing objective analysis. Before trading, carefully consider your experience, financial goals, and risk tolerance. Trading involves significant potential for financial loss and isn't suitable for everyone.

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