![eur usd 3](https://howtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/eur-usd-3.png)
Fundamental and technical factors add to the EUR/USD downside pressure. Retail Sales and PPI data in focus.
Key Points
- The EUR/USD gained 0.16%yesterday and adds 0.18% on Thursday, but the general outlook remains bearish.
- Notable indicators point to a bearish outlook for the pair in the long term.
- Key price levels to watch are $1.07338, $1.07459, and $1.07169.
EUR/USD Daily Price Analysis – 15/02/2024
Since the end of December 2023, the EUR/USD has been in a downtrend, and the price fell even lower after the release of the CPI data on Tuesday. The high inflation rate reduced the Fed rate cut probability in March from 21% to 10.5%, according to the FedWatch Tool. Yesterday, the 14th of Feb, the pair put up some fight to rise by 0.16%. But that wasn’t enough to overturn the CPI day’s bearish candle that saw the price fall by 0.58%.
So far today, the price has risen by a further 0.08% to $1.07348. Despite that, notable indicators, including the 50-day EMA and the RSI, still indicate a bearish fortune for the pair. Considering these factors, the overall outlook for the EUR/USD remains bearish.
![eurusd daily](https://howtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/eurusd-daily-1024x518.png)
Technically, the EUR/USD is making a retracement to the upside on the hourly timeframe after the huge CPI-induced drop. Plotting the Fibonacci retracement tool on the chart, you’ll observe that the price has only just broken past the 0.618 level, which coincides with the $1.07338 price level. This break doesn’t yet look convincing, though, as we’ve not seen a strong bullish candle to push the price further up the retracement.
If the price continues to retrace upward, the next Fibonacci levels test are at 0.5 ($1.07459), 0.382 ($1.07578), and 0.236 ($1.07726) to contend with as resistance levels.
On the flip side, if the 0.618 level is able to hold the price, we might see a continuation of the major downtrend. That would put the support level at $1.07169 in jeopardy as the price looks to clear out the major swing low of $1.06950.
Even though the 50-EMA and the RSI suggest that the EUR/USD outlook remains bullish in the short term, the overall trend still remains heavily bearish.
![eurusd 1h chart fib](https://howtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/eurusd-1h-chart-fib-1024x518.png)
Key Economic Data and News to Be Released Today
US Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, and Philadelphia/New York Fed Manufacturing Indices (8:30 AM GMT-5) are top news events to watch today. Upbeat retail sales, low unemployment claims, or expanding manufacturing activity could benefit the USD and push the EUR/USD lower. On the flip side, sluggish sales, high jobless claims, or contracting manufacturing might trigger a sharp rebound in the pair to the bullish side. Mixed data will likely have a limited impact until market sentiment settles.
EUR/USD Key Fibonacci Price Levels 15/2/2024
Based on the 1hr chart, the key standard pivot point levels for the EUR/USD are these:
Support | Resistance |
$1.07169 | $1.07459 |
$1.06950 | $1.07578 |
$1.07726 |
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