Japan’s Balance of Trade data release may impact yen movements, with potential BoJ interventions if yen strength continues.
Key Points
- USD/JPY closed flat at 153.904, influenced by safe-haven demand and suspected Tokyo interventions.
- The pair rose 0.26% today to 154.296, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve policy actions.
- The U.S. Core PCE Price Index for June, crucial for Fed decisions, is today’s key data.
USD/JPY Daily Price Analysis – 26/07/2024
On the previous trading day, USD/JPY experienced minimal movement, closing at 153.904, essentially flat from its opening of 153.890, resulting in a change of +0.00%. During the session, the pair hit a low of 153.939 before rebounding. The yen’s recent strength, driven by unwinding of carry trades and safe-haven demand, contributed to this stability. This followed suspected interventions by Tokyo and global market volatility, which supported the yen.
Today, USD/JPY is trading at approximately 154.296, reflecting a 0.26% increase from the day’s open of 153.931. This rise aligns with a broader strengthening of the dollar in early trading, influenced by market expectations of the Federal Reserve’s policy actions. The yen’s earlier gains have moderated, suggesting a potential period of consolidation as investors await significant economic data releases.
Key Economic Data and News to Be Released Today
Today, the market’s focus is on the U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for June, which is a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve. The forecasted figures suggest a potential slowdown in inflation, which could impact the Fed’s future rate hike decisions. Additionally, Japan’s economic calendar includes the Balance of Trade data for June, which may influence the yen’s movement depending on the trade balance outcome.
Traders should also be aware of potential interventions by the BoJ, especially if the yen continues to strengthen, as this could impact the pair’s short-term trajectory.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis – 26/07/2024
The USD/JPY chart indicates a short-term bullish trend as the price is currently trading above the 200 EMA.
The RSI is currently positioned around 65.82, indicating that the market is approaching overbought conditions but has not yet entered the critical 70+ overbought zone. This suggests that while the upward momentum is strong, there may still be room for further upside before the market corrects.
USD/JPY Fibonacci Key Price Levels 26/07/2024
Short-term traders planning to invest in USD/JPY today should keep a close eye on the following key price levels for the day:
| Support | Resistance |
| 152.478 | 154.298 |
| 151.916 | 154.860 |
| 151.006 | 155.770 |
Risk Disclosure: The information provided in this article is not intended to give financial advice, recommend investments, guarantee profits, or shield you from losses. Our content is only for informational purposes and to help you understand the risks and complexity of these markets by providing objective analysis. Before trading, carefully consider your experience, financial goals, and risk tolerance. Trading involves significant potential for financial loss and isn't suitable for everyone.
