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Natural Gas Daily Price Analysis – Bearish Momentum Persists in Natural Gas Futures as Prices Hit Four-Week Low

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natural gas market analysis 1

Today’s natural gas prices opened at $2.576/MMBtu and fell another 1.31%, reaching a four-week low of $2.57/MMBtu amid concerns over oversupply and weak demand.

Key Points

  • Key economic events this week include ISM Manufacturing PMI, FOMC meeting, and NFP report, all likely to impact energy demand.
  • The upcoming EIA natural gas storage report will be crucial for price movements, with deviations from expectations significantly impacting the market.
  • Technically, natural gas is bearish, trading below the 200 EMA with RSI under 50, indicating continued downward pressure.

Natural Gas Daily Price Analysis – 01/07/2024

US natural gas futures fell on the last trading day to close at $2.601/MMBtu, down from their opening price of $2.702/MMBtu (-3.13%). It was the fourth straight loss for gas, with mounting U.S. production and poor liquefied natural gas (LNG) feedgas deliveries overtaking increased demand from hot weather outlooks. Natural gas prices have been weak relative to oil, despite a brief spike earlier this month on market perceptions that the temperature was going to rise well above seasonally high levels needed for sustainable price lift-off.

Today, natural gas prices opened at $2.576/MMBtu and have fallen another ~1.31%, trading around $2.567/MMBtu as of writing this post. Prices dipped to a four-week low of $2.57/MMBtu in early trading hours. That would be in line with continuing worries of an oversupply coupled with surprisingly feeble demand that has been fueled by recent storage data. U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed an increase of 52 billion cubic feet in natural gas storage, just below expectations but still indicative that supplies were clearly ample.

Key Economic Data and News to Be Released Today

ISM Manufacturing PMI is set to hit the wires later in the day, providing clues about the manufacturing sector’s economic health that would affect energy demand. The FOMC meeting will be held on Wednesday, and amendments to the monetary policy are likely to impact market behavior, indirectly moving commodity prices and potentially USD. And the NFP report on Friday will provide a key clue into labor market conditions and by extension, macroeconomic health that can affect energy demand/supply balance fundamentally.

The market will also be keeping an eye on the latest EIA natural gas storage report, as well some domestic macroeconomic data. If the storage increase is less than expected, it might be a way of pointing to increased demand and prices may stabilize or go slightly higher. However, on the downside a bigger than expected rise is seen as bearish to prices.

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Natural Gas Technical Analysis – 01/07/2024

NG outlook is currently bearish from a technical analysis perspective. The commodity is trending below the intraday 200 EMA while also reacting to price sensitivity close to the nearest support level.

natural gas m15 chart
Natural Gas – 15-Minute Chart

The RSI trading below the 50 level  also confirms that the downward pull on Natural is set to continue for at least a little more before any form of bullish movement can happen.

Natural Gas Fibonacci Key Price Levels 01/07/2024

Short-term traders planning to invest in NG today should keep a close eye on the following key price levels for the day:


Risk Disclosure: The information provided in this article is not intended to give financial advice, recommend investments, guarantee profits, or shield you from losses. Our content is only for informational purposes and to help you understand the risks and complexity of these markets by providing objective analysis. Before trading, carefully consider your experience, financial goals, and risk tolerance. Trading involves significant potential for financial loss and isn't suitable for everyone.

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