Potential challenges for the Euro include stress in the French bond market and upcoming French elections, likely keeping EUR/USD under pressure within the 1.0660-1.0760 range.
Key Points
- EUR/USD gained 0.38% on Monday, closing at 1.07338 despite disappointing Eurozone economic data.
- Today, EUR/USD opened at 1.07338 and decreased to 1.07114.
- Key economic events today include Australia’s Westpac report, Japan’s BOJ CPI, and US FOMC speeches.
EUR/USD Daily Price Analysis – 25/06/2024
EUR/USD gained 0.38% on Monday – the pair leaving 1.06927 open and closing at 1.07338. The modest gains were in spite of some disappointing numbers from the Euro zone, most notably the German Ifo Business Climate Index that missed expectations with a 88.6 reading versus an expected 89.4. The bearish sentiment economic data from Germany was the main reason for the pair to decline.
Today, EUR / USD opened at 1.07338 and has decreased to 1.07114 (-0.20%). The minor correction seen could also reflect a note of caution in the markets, perhaps due to concerns over geo-political risks and relatively mixed Eurozone economic data.
The euro may face further challenges in sustaining gains due to potential stress in the French bond market and uncertainties from the upcoming French elections. Analysts suggest that EUR/USD might struggle to break above its current range of 1.0660-1.0760. The diverging monetary policies of the ECB and the Federal Reserve, alongside geopolitical developments, are likely to keep the pair under pressure, with a possible test of the 1.0600 level in the near term.
Key Economic Data and News to Be Released Today
Today, the focus will be on several very important events. During the early part of the day, the Westpac Consumer Sentiment report from Australia and Japan BOJ Core CPI figures are expected. Following that, a ripple of speakers from FOMC participants Bowman and Cook are expected in the U.S. who could share some thoughts on upcoming Federal Reserve policy changes. The other considerable mover should be the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI and CB Consumer Confidence index in the U.S. which is forecasted to slip slightly to 100.0 from 102.0.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis – 25/06/2024
From a technical analysis perspective, EUR/USD has crossed below the intraday 200 EMA, and we can only expect the price to keep falling towards the next support zone.
However, the RSI is nearing an oversold level. Hence, the need for sellers to exercise caution before committing to a bearish position.
EUR/USD Fibonacci Key Price Levels 25/06/2024
Short-term traders planning to invest in EUR/USD today should keep a close eye on the following key price levels for the day:
| Support | Resistance |
| 1.06973 | 1.07453 |
| 1.06824 | 1.07602 |
| 1.06584 | 1.07842 |
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