GBP/USD remains above the 200 EMA, with short-term support around 1.31494 and resistance at 1.31864, but traders are advised to be cautious ahead of key economic data.
Key Points
- Today, the pair dipped 0.08% with markets awaiting the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report.
- Strong NFP data could strengthen the U.S. dollar and push GBP/USD lower.
- Weak NFP data may support the pound, increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts.
GBP/USD Daily Price Analysis – 06/09/2024
On Wednesday, GBP/USD closed at 1.31808, a 0.25% rise from its opening price of 1.31461. This upward movement was influenced by the weaker-than-expected U.S. ADP private sector employment report, which showed a slowdown in job growth, fueling speculation of more aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This created selling pressure on the U.S. dollar, allowing the pound to gain ground. The drop in U.S. private jobs growth highlighted concerns about a potential slowdown in the U.S. labor market, pushing the dollar lower across most major currencies.
Today, GBP/USD opened slightly lower at 1.31798 and has since slipped to 1.31698, a 0.08% decline. Early trading reflects cautious market sentiment as traders await key economic data, including the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. The pair seems range-bound for now, with market participants hesitant to take major positions ahead of significant data releases.
Key Economic Data and News to Be Released Today
The most critical release today will be the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, where the market expects 139,000 jobs to have been added in August, up from July’s 97,000. A strong jobs report could reduce the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts by the Fed, strengthening the U.S. dollar and potentially pushing GBP/USD lower.
On the other hand, weaker-than-expected results could further bolster expectations of monetary easing, supporting the pound. The unemployment rate is expected to drop slightly to 4.2%, and a surprise in either direction could trigger sharp moves in the market.
As the day progresses, the pound may remain sensitive to any risk-off sentiment, especially if Chinese market jitters continue to weigh on global growth expectations, which may cause a flight to the U.S. dollar. This creates a precarious situation for traders short on the dollar, with limited room for more easing being priced in.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis – 06/09/2024
GBP/USD has been bullish since yesterday. Even though price is currently trading below today’s open price, it is still trending above the 200 EMA. Even though the uptrend is not convincing enough, price has found what seems like a temporary support on the 200 EMA.
The RSI also doesn’t really provide us with a clear confirmation of where price may be headed next. So, in this kind of scenario, it is advisable for traders to sit on their hands, especially since a high impact news release is around the corner.
GBP/USD Fibonacci Key Price Levels 06/09/2024
Short-term traders planning to invest in GBP/USD today should keep a close eye on the following key price levels for the day:
| Support | Resistance |
| 1.31494 | 1.31864 |
| 1.31381 | 1.31977 |
| 1.31196 | 1.32162 |
Risk Disclosure: The information provided in this article is not intended to give financial advice, recommend investments, guarantee profits, or shield you from losses. Our content is only for informational purposes and to help you understand the risks and complexity of these markets by providing objective analysis. Before trading, carefully consider your experience, financial goals, and risk tolerance. Trading involves significant potential for financial loss and isn't suitable for everyone.
