The U.S. jobs report has led to market speculation of a 93% chance that the Fed will pause rate hikes this month, though inflation data remains key.
Key Points
- EUR/USD closed Friday at 1.10856, down 0.23%, amid mixed U.S. jobs data.
- The pair dropped 0.33% to 1.10486 today, driven by safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar.
- U.S. CPI on Wednesday could strengthen the dollar, pushing EUR/USD lower if inflation rises.
EUR/USD Daily Price Analysis – 09/09/2024
The EUR/USD pair ended Friday’s session at 1.10856, dropping by 0.23% from its opening at 1.11102. This decline came after the U.S. released a confusing jobs report, leaving traders unsure of what would happen next. On one side, the report showed slower job growth, which could mean the economy is slowing down. On the other hand, the unemployment rate fell to 3.8%, showing that the job market is still strong. This mix of information caused uncertainty in the market, with everyone wondering if the Federal Reserve would pause or continue raising interest rates. By the end of the day, the U.S. dollar gained strength, keeping traders nervous.
As the new week begins, the EUR/USD pair has dropped further, now trading at 1.10486—a 0.33% fall from its opening at 1.10827. The market seems to be reacting to the stronger U.S. dollar, which is benefiting from safe-haven demand. Investors are being cautious, keeping an eye on what’s coming next. The big event everyone is waiting for is the U.S. inflation report on Wednesday. This could be the deciding factor for what the Federal Reserve does at its next meeting.
The jobs report from Friday sent mixed signals. While job growth wasn’t great, wages stayed the same, and the unemployment rate dropped. These conflicting messages have led most people to believe that the Federal Reserve will pause rate hikes this month, with a 93% chance they won’t raise them. However, the slowing job market could still lead to changes down the road, especially if inflation starts rising again. For now, the EUR/USD pair is in a tricky position, sensitive to every new update, as traders try to figure out how the economic data and central bank decisions will play out.
Key Economic Data and News to Be Released Today
While there’s no high impact news release in sight for the day, Wednesday’s U.S. CPI data is expected to be the next significant driver of price action.
A higher-than-expected inflation reading could rekindle expectations for further tightening by the Fed, strengthening the U.S. dollar and potentially pushing EUR/USD lower. On the European side, the market is awaiting Thursday’s ECB meeting, where another rate hike could offer some support to the euro if inflation data remains elevated.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis – 09/09/2024
Looking at the EUR/USD chart, it’s obvious we have an interesting scenario before us. The pair is decisively bearish as price has remained under the 200 EMA while also breaking and closing below support levels.
However, the RSI is telling a different story. Since the RSI is oversold, we are being led to believe that a reversal or bullish pullback is about to happen. So, with this conflicting signal what do we do? It’s simple: We wait.
Should the price retrace, we can decide to enter a short position at a Fibonacci level. But if the price breaks above the high of the day, we can switch our bias to a bullish one. Only in that case do we start looking to long the pair.
EUR/USD Fibonacci Key Price Levels 09/09/2024
Short-term traders planning to invest in EUR/USD today should keep a close eye on the following key price levels for the day:
| Support | Resistance |
| 1.10680 | 1.11366 |
| 1.10467 | 1.11579 |
| 1.10124 | 1.11922 |
Risk Disclosure: The information provided in this article is not intended to give financial advice, recommend investments, guarantee profits, or shield you from losses. Our content is only for informational purposes and to help you understand the risks and complexity of these markets by providing objective analysis. Before trading, carefully consider your experience, financial goals, and risk tolerance. Trading involves significant potential for financial loss and isn't suitable for everyone.
