NASDAQ To Surge On NFP Day? – NASDAQ100 Analysis & Prediction

Key Points

• Fed seems to rule out any more hikes.
• Traders eye crucial NFP day.
• Mixed jobs data in the lead-up to NFP.
• NASDAQ reacts from key support area.

Week Overview

It has been another blockbuster week in the markets. It started off with everyone talking about the Bank of Japan and its clear attempts to save the Yen. Analysts at Bank of America Global Research have estimated the size of the first intervention to be around 5 trillion yen or $32.7bn, and the effect has been quite tame so far.

On Wednesday, attention then turned to the Federal Reserve, and Jerome Powell dismissed any suggestions that stagflation was creeping into the US economy. Although the markets witnessed severe whipsaw price action, one of the biggest takeaways from the meeting was that Jerome Powell seemed to rule out any more hikes, and the NASDAQ has gained ground since.   

Another Hot NFP Incoming?

Anyone who was hoping for a quiet end to the week is mistaken. Today is US Non-Farm Payrolls Day! On the first Friday of every month, the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics releases an employment statistics report from the previous month, and it loves to cause shockwaves throughout the markets.

There has been a clear trend in the jobs number, and it’s that the US labour market is robust, to say the least. In fact, over the last 20 Non-Farm Payrolls reports, the jobs number has exceeded market expectations on 17 occasions and has beat expectations in the last 5. Why should today be any different? The forecasted jobs number today is 238,000, a considerable uptick from the previous predictions, so that is something to bear in mind. The jobs data that has led up to the big event today has been mixed, with the  ADP Non-Farm Employment Change rising, but the JOLTS job openings falling.

NASDAQ To Surge Regardless of NFP?

The NASDAQ has painted an interesting picture as of late, because the ascending channel that had been intact for a long time has been broken, and we finally witnessed a bearish break of structure (BOS). This has had the price flirting with the 100-day moving average for a couple of weeks now, but yesterday’s bullish close has painted a rosier picture heading into today.

As predicted last week, the NASDAQ has reacted positively to an H4 Order Block situated at 17400, and now looks like the price could be on the march again! Unless NFP misses badly today, i.e., 400k or 90k, then we could see the NASDAQ move up towards the daily imbalance area at 17800-18000, where coincidently, the 50-day moving average sits. The bears will target a key daily order block at 16800, which could act as a strong support area.